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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
UBS has raised its target price for Rheinmetall AG to €630, maintaining a neutral stance on the company. Rheinmetall specializes in military and civilian equipment, with sales primarily from vehicle systems (35.9%), weapons and ammunition (20.6%), and electronic solutions (14.2%). Geographically, 24% of sales come from Germany, with 47.4% from Europe, and the remainder from Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas.
Markets reacted positively to President-elect Trump's nomination of financier Bessent as treasury secretary, as investors favor orthodoxy and predictability in economic policy. Bessent's stance on trade tariffs aligns with Trump's previous approach, providing a voice of moderation amid differing cabinet opinions.Consumer sentiment data from Michigan reached a four-year high among Republicans, while Democrats showed a significant decline. As "Black Friday" approaches, a shift in consumer spending patterns is evident, with Tokyo department store sales dropping in October.
UBS's outlook for 2025 anticipates continued growth in US equity markets, driven by deregulation and improved business sentiment, despite potential tariff impacts. Scenarios range from a growth spurt with the S&P 500 reaching 7,000 to a bear case of a hard landing at 4,500, influenced by consumer spending and geopolitical tensions. Investment opportunities are seen in real estate and transition metals, while gold is expected to benefit from lower interest rates and geopolitical risks.
US equities have significantly outperformed European markets, with the S&P 500 rising 25% compared to a mere 7% for the Swiss Performance Index. This divergence is attributed to stronger economic performance in the US, despite high interest rates, while Europe grapples with political paralysis and economic challenges. Structural advantages in the US economy, particularly in future-oriented sectors, suggest continued growth potential, making US equities a compelling investment choice.
Average slaughter cattle prices in the EU rose again, with young bulls in trade category R3 reaching €549.03/100 kg BW, a 1.0% increase from the previous week. Spain and Poland saw notable gains of 2.7% and 1.7%, while Italy experienced volatility with an 8.1% drop.Cows for slaughter in trade category O3 averaged €438.19/100 kg BW, up 0.2%, with Italy leading the increase at 2.0%. Heifer prices also climbed, averaging €547.36/100 kg BW, a 1.0% rise, driven by strong demand in Spain and Poland.
AUD/USD rose to 0.6525, buoyed by stabilizing commodity prices and the appointment of Scott Bessent as US Treasury secretary by President-elect Trump. The US dollar weakened against several currencies, while upcoming economic events include the October CPI release and a speech by RBA Governor Michelle Bullock. Recent Australian inflation data showed a slight decline, with expectations for the October CPI to rise by 2.3% YoY, amid ongoing government cost-of-living rebates.
SG Fleet's share price surged nearly 21% following an indicative M&A proposal, sparking investor speculation about a potential bidding war. The innovative vehicle leasing sector is thriving, driven by government incentives for electric vehicles, though future growth may be hindered by regulatory changes. Current shareholders face a strategic decision to hold or trim their positions amid market volatility and the nature of the private equity bid.
US stocks closed the week higher, led by the Dow, as investors focused on cyclical gains amid inflation concerns. Attention now shifts to the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and core PCE inflation data, which may influence market expectations for future interest rate cuts.In technical analysis, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 showed bullish signs, with potential for further gains if key support levels hold. However, a break below these levels could signal deeper declines.
UBS has set a target of US$2,900 for gold by year-end 2025, citing its role as a preferred hedge against geopolitical tensions, particularly in light of recent escalations involving Russia and Ukraine. Analysts believe the strength of the US dollar may be reaching its limits, suggesting a potential shift in valuation dynamics. As the week begins, gold prices have dipped to around USD 2,690, down from a three-week high.
Asian indices are rising, buoyed by Wall Street's optimistic close and a decline in the US dollar. The Nikkei, ASX, and KOSPI have all posted gains, supported by strong US PMI data and President-elect Trump's Treasury Secretary nomination, which may enhance market sentiment.The US dollar's recent gains may be reversing, potentially allowing Asian markets to continue their upward trend. The upcoming US core PCE price index will be crucial in determining future rate expectations, as inflation remains a key concern.
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