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Ivan Adamovich, CEO of Private Client Bank, likens the euro to the former Italian lira, citing its weakness amid concerns over Eurozone growth. The euro recently fell to its lowest value against the Swiss franc since 2015, driven by economic disparities with the U.S. and internal challenges in Germany and France. Adamovich suggests that reforms in tax competition and labor markets are essential for improvement, but no changes are anticipated soon.
US equity index futures rose following President-elect Trump's selection of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, contributing to the Dow's record close above 44K, up 2% last week. Despite positive US PMI data, consumer sentiment fell short of expectations, while asset managers reduced their net long positions from 76% to 63%. IG client sentiment shifted to extreme short at 79%, contrasting with CoT speculators' reduced net long positions at 62%.
The Dollar Index fell 0.6% at the week's start, influenced by a 10 basis point drop in the US 10-year yield. Concerns over U.S. fiscal debt sustainability topped the Fed's financial stability report, alongside geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty. The bond market reacted positively to a recent appointment, though its long-term impact on the dollar and interest rates remains uncertain.
UBS has raised its target price for Rheinmetall AG to €630, maintaining a neutral stance on the company. Rheinmetall specializes in military and civilian equipment, with sales primarily from vehicle systems (35.9%), weapons and ammunition (20.6%), and electronic solutions (14.2%). Geographically, 24% of sales come from Germany, with 47.4% from Europe, and the remainder from Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas.
Markets reacted positively to President-elect Trump's nomination of financier Bessent as treasury secretary, as investors favor orthodoxy and predictability in economic policy. Bessent's stance on trade tariffs aligns with Trump's previous approach, providing a voice of moderation amid differing cabinet opinions.Consumer sentiment data from Michigan reached a four-year high among Republicans, while Democrats showed a significant decline. As "Black Friday" approaches, a shift in consumer spending patterns is evident, with Tokyo department store sales dropping in October.
UBS's outlook for 2025 anticipates continued growth in US equity markets, driven by deregulation and improved business sentiment, despite potential tariff impacts. Scenarios range from a growth spurt with the S&P 500 reaching 7,000 to a bear case of a hard landing at 4,500, influenced by consumer spending and geopolitical tensions. Investment opportunities are seen in real estate and transition metals, while gold is expected to benefit from lower interest rates and geopolitical risks.
US equities have significantly outperformed European markets, with the S&P 500 rising 25% compared to a mere 7% for the Swiss Performance Index. This divergence is attributed to stronger economic performance in the US, despite high interest rates, while Europe grapples with political paralysis and economic challenges. Structural advantages in the US economy, particularly in future-oriented sectors, suggest continued growth potential, making US equities a compelling investment choice.
Average slaughter cattle prices in the EU rose again, with young bulls in trade category R3 reaching €549.03/100 kg BW, a 1.0% increase from the previous week. Spain and Poland saw notable gains of 2.7% and 1.7%, while Italy experienced volatility with an 8.1% drop.Cows for slaughter in trade category O3 averaged €438.19/100 kg BW, up 0.2%, with Italy leading the increase at 2.0%. Heifer prices also climbed, averaging €547.36/100 kg BW, a 1.0% rise, driven by strong demand in Spain and Poland.
AUD/USD rose to 0.6525, buoyed by stabilizing commodity prices and the appointment of Scott Bessent as US Treasury secretary by President-elect Trump. The US dollar weakened against several currencies, while upcoming economic events include the October CPI release and a speech by RBA Governor Michelle Bullock. Recent Australian inflation data showed a slight decline, with expectations for the October CPI to rise by 2.3% YoY, amid ongoing government cost-of-living rebates.
SG Fleet's share price surged nearly 21% following an indicative M&A proposal, sparking investor speculation about a potential bidding war. The innovative vehicle leasing sector is thriving, driven by government incentives for electric vehicles, though future growth may be hindered by regulatory changes. Current shareholders face a strategic decision to hold or trim their positions amid market volatility and the nature of the private equity bid.
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euro's decline likened to the italian lira amid economic concerns
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11:00 25.11.2024
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dollar weakens as bond market reacts to fiscal concerns and political uncertainty
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10:37 25.11.2024
ubs raises rheinmetall target to 630 euros amid diverse military offerings
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investment outlook 2025 navigating growth challenges and opportunities in the markets
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us equities outperform european markets amid economic disparities and structural advantages
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eu beef prices rise with notable increases across member states
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06:35 25.11.2024
AUD/USD rises on stabilizing commodities and new Treasury secretary appointment
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06:34 25.11.2024
g fleet shares surge on m and a proposal amid leasing sector growth
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